Top 5 Biggest Losers from the NFL Draft/Free Agency Through June 1

I reserve the right to change my opinion based on new signings or injuries between now and Week 1. All player rankings are based on the overall fantasy points scored in 2023 (per Sleeper).

1. Josh Allen – QB – BUF – Quarterback #1 in 2023

Allen paced all quarterbacks in fantasy points scored last season while also setting the NFL record for rushing touchdowns (15) in a season for a quarterback.

Additionally, the Bills lost wide-outs Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis in free agency, as well as center Mitch Morse. He is going to have to see what rookie Keon Coleman is made of right away and Dalton Kincaid is going to be the number one target to start the season.

My official 2024 prediction: Outside the top 5 QBs

2. DJ Moore – WR – CHI – Wide Receiver #6 in 2023

He was the go-to guy last year for the Bears with 96 receptions on 136 targets. He had career highs in yards (1,364) and touchdowns (8). The drafting of Rome Odunze (9th overall) and the acquisition of Keenan Allen means more legitimate mouths to feed in the Chicago passing game. Not to mention not knowing what you are going to get with rookie Caleb Williams under center from week to week.

My official 2024 prediction: Ceiling WR15

3. Justin Jefferson – WR – MIN – Wide Receiver #33 in 2023

JJ only played in 10 games due to a hamstring injury in Week 5 but was well on his way to another elite fantasy season. If he stays healthy in 2024, I believe he could be in for a step back due to the signing of Aaron Jones and to whoever ends up at quarterback for the Vikings

rookie J.J. McCarthy or NFL journeyman Sam Darnold.

My official 2024 prediction: Not a top 5 WR

4. Kyren Williams – RB – LAR – Running Back #7 in 2023

Williams only played in 12 games but still managed to be well inside the top 10 for running backs in terms of total fantasy points last year. It will be hard for him to match his 15 total touchdowns from 2023 with rookie Blake Corum presumably getting some share of the snaps as the season progresses.

My official 2024 prediction: At best RB #15

5. Devonta Smith – WR – PHI – Wide Receiver #19 in 2023

Smith has scored 7 touchdowns each of the last two seasons while also eclipsing 1,000 yards in both. Saquan Barkley will take some targets away from him and the Eagles run game will improve as well, thus limiting Smith’s ceiling this season.

My official 2024 prediction: Outside the top 25 WR